In August, global markets were driven by “hard-asset revaluation” and the “repricing of dollar credit.” Gold, copper and crude oil rallied in tandem before reversing sharply at month-end as Federal Reserve policy expectations shifted.
Gold extended its rally following July’s weak payrolls and renewed central-bank purchases. On 19 August, the U.S. Treasury doubled the single-operation repurchase limit for 10–30-year Treasuries to US$4 billion, intensifying concerns over dollar credibility and fiscal sustainability. Spot gold rose more than 4% in one session, breaking through US$4,400 and US$4,500 and briefly reaching approximately US$4,660. However, Kevin Warsh adopted a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole, lifting market-implied September rate-hike probability from around 35% to above 60%. Gold subsequently retreated, ending the month near US$4,330, but still gaining approximately 10%, its best monthly performance since September 1999. Gold equities outperformed bullion, with the gold-mining index rising about 33%. Copper extended its rally for a ninth consecutive week amid tariff expectations, trader stockpiling and COMEX–LME inventory dislocations. Copper concentrate treatment charges fell below negative US$175 per tonne. Brent crude rebounded above US$90 as geopolitical risks intensified and Strait of Hormuz shipping was disrupted.
In China, July financing growth remained stable but credit demand weakened, with government and corporate bond issuance offsetting a net decline in new renminbi loans. Manufacturing PMI recovered from 49.2 in July to 49.8 in August, indicating modest but fragile improvement.
Global equities remained highly divergent. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 2.6% and 3.9%, respectively, while A-shares rebounded strongly. Hong Kong underperformed, with the Hang Seng and Hang Seng TECH indices falling approximately 1.2% and 4.3%.
In September, markets focused on the Fed’s policy path. Stronger U.S. payrolls supported a roughly 60% probability of a rate hike, keeping gold volatile between US$4,300 and US$4,500. Near-term direction will depend on U.S. inflation data and the Fed’s policy meeting.