In July, global markets remained volatile amid competing drivers: recurring US–Iran geopolitical tensions, repricing of Fed policy expectations, and a heavy slate of earnings releases. Compared with June, the marginal impact of US–Iran developments on oil, gold, and...

In June, global markets turned more volatile as geopolitical tensions eased temporarily and Fed policy expectations were repriced. US-Iran negotiations progressed, and a ceasefire memorandum was signed mid-month, quickly erasing the geopolitical premium in commodities...

In May, the Israel–Iran conflict entered its third month. While a fragile ceasefire largely held, intermittent frictions persisted, and negotiations remained stalled with both sides entrenched. Key disagreements center on control of the Strait of Hormuz and the...

In April, the US–Israel–Iran conflict remained a key driver of global markets. After an initial ceasefire and inconclusive talks in Pakistan, the US imposed a comprehensive blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, forcing Iran back to negotiations while largely halting...

In March, escalating military conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, alongside ongoing diplomatic tensions, made Middle East geopolitical risk the dominant global market driver. U.S. and Israeli strikes triggered stronger-than-expected Iranian retaliation,...

In February, FOMC minutes revealed internal divergence regarding monetary policy. While most officials maintained a neutral stance, hawkish members advocated for "two-way flexibility," noting that persistent inflation might necessitate further rate hikes....

In January, the U.S. reported a 4.4% quarter-on-quarter growth in real GDP for Q3, marking the fastest pace in two years. This growth was driven by consumer spending, exports, government expenditure, and investment, alongside a decline in imports. The Federal Reserve...

As the December Federal Reserve meeting approaches, expectations for rate cuts dominate November's market. The delayed September non-farm payroll report showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to...

In August, following disappointing non-farm payroll data, the U.S. CPI remained relatively mild, leading the market to refocus on expectations for a rate cut in September. At the Jackson Hole central bank conference, Powell indicated that adjustments to monetary...

In June, U.S. CPI for May fell below expectations, prompting market anticipation for a September Fed rate cut, leading to a decline in the dollar index. Mid-month, tensions in the Middle East escalated after Israel's airstrike on Iran, causing concerns about...